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MCA/BLOC estimates: Phase 9 plumbing only

Status: accepted Date: 2026-07-09 Phase 9 carries optional ProductDecision.estimate for MCA and BLOC but does not ship funding-range formulas. UI may hide or show a placeholder until a follow-up fills real math. SBA never gets an estimate in this model (questionnaire-gated; no pre-approval estimate — ADR-0003).

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Decision

  1. Phase 9a / schema: ProductDecision.estimate?: { low: number; high: number } | null is part of the per-product shape for all five products. Cards/TL may continue to populate estimates as they do today (or via existing creative-funding ranges). MCA and BLOC estimators return null / omit estimate in Phase 9.
  2. Phase 9e UI: Revenue Based rows may reserve space for a range or hide the range when estimate is null — do not invent placeholder dollar amounts. No “Coming Soon” on the estimate itself unless product asks for it later.
  3. Follow-up initiative (not Phase 9): implement MCA and BLOC estimate formulas (product-supplied rules) and populate estimate on those Product Decisions. SBA remains without a pre-approval estimate.

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Context

Operators will eventually want MCA/BLOC pre-approval ranges alongside cards. Formulas are not ready to lock in the same pass as the Per-Product Decision Model. Blocking Phase 9 on estimate math delays the veto removal, BLOC evaluator, SBA CTA, and Revenue Based rename. Plumbing the optional field now avoids a second schema migration when formulas land.

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Considered options

  • A — Formulas in Phase 9a + show ranges in 9e — rejected; needs product rules before coding and risks wrong numbers.
  • B — Plumbing only; null estimates until follow-up (accepted).
  • C — No estimate work in Phase 9 at all — rejected; would force a later shape change or parallel UI hack when formulas ship.

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Consequences

  • Persona delta table / snapshots: MCA/BLOC estimate absent or null is expected; not a golden delta to invent.
  • Do not show fabricated ranges in 9e.
  • Glossary: CONTEXT.md → “Product estimate (deferred formulas)”. System reference: docs/design/underwriting.md §7.
  • Ticket the follow-up: “MCA/BLOC funding range formulas” once product supplies rules (can ship with or after BLOC eligibility criteria).